How We Think About Markets
Most of the time, prices are fair for the risks involved. We don't try to outsmart the market—we look for structural situations where the odds are tilted in our favor. That means being patient, staying simple, and understanding exactly why an opportunity exists.
There are only two ways to get paid in markets: accepting risks others find unattractive (risk premia), or exploiting moments when prices are temporarily wrong (inefficiencies). Both require discipline. Both require knowing what you're doing. And both require surviving long enough for the edge to play out.
Our Principles
Before looking for edge, we try to follow a set of principles that keep us grounded. These aren't revolutionary—they're just easy to forget when you're staring at charts.
Keep It Simple
The best edges are obvious in hindsight. If you can't explain why something works in plain language, you probably don't understand it well enough to trade it.
Depth Over Breadth
When something works, stick with it. Chasing new ideas constantly is a distraction. One good edge, exploited well, beats ten mediocre ones.
Respect Capacity
Backtests lie when liquidity is thin. What matters is what actually executes in live markets—not what looks good on paper.
Measure Everything
It's easy to mistake luck for skill. Track what actually drives returns, and be honest when something stops working.
Two Ways to Get Paid
Think of risk premia like a banknote in the middle of a highway—everyone sees it, but picking it up is uncomfortable. Inefficiencies are like finding cash outside a bar every Friday night—shouldn't happen according to theory, but you noticed the pattern. Different games, different rules.
Risk Premia
Get paid for holding what others won't. Volatility premium, carry, momentum, trend-following—you're compensated for sitting through the discomfort and crash risk that comes with these positions.
Inefficiencies
Catch prices when they're temporarily wrong. New listing dynamics, forced liquidations, index rebalances—someone is trading for reasons other than value. That's your edge.
Structural Flows
When large players have to trade regardless of price—rebalances, margin calls, fund redemptions—prices dislocate. Quick opportunities, but you need to be there first.
Behavioral Patterns
Retail FOMO, panic selling, herding into narratives. Human psychology creates repeatable mispricings—if you can identify them without falling for them yourself.
Know Your Edge
Many traders profit without understanding why. That's dangerous—when conditions change, they won't know what broke. Edge must be clearly defined, backed by data, and you need to understand its source. Otherwise you're just gambling with a nice backtest.